Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
